eternal persistence of rising polarity

Dear Senator Portman,

Thank you for your e-mail of 25-March, responding to my previous e-mails to you in which I expressed my significant concerns about the fact that you are blocking a vote in the Senate on the President's nominee for the Supreme Court.

Your primary argument that you presented in your editorial to the Cincinnati Enquirer in March and also reinforced in your statement subsequent to your meeting with  Judge Garland earlier this month is based on ideas of partisanship determining when to take actions :

 "I have concluded that the best thing for the country is to trust the American people to weigh in and to have the confirmation process take place in a less partisan atmosphere. "

Well, when are we going to have a less partisan atmosphere ?

Let's look at some data, some actual real data that is well known and respected in your sphere : DW-NOMINATE measures of polarity in Congress, based on the methods developed by political scientists Keith T. Poole and Howard Rosenthal.

The data shows that subsequent to the last 16 presidential elections, the subsequent Congress and Senate sessions were MORE polarized in 14 of those 16 elections !! So, unless something changes to disrupt that pattern, the probability to arrive at a less partisan atmosphere is about 12% probability, vs. the more likely scenario (88%) that next years Senate will be even more partisan, more polarized than the current Senate.

So, if what you are trying to achieve is a confirmation process in a less partisan environment .... better act now, because the situation is only going to be worse next year.

The only two elections that are associated to a less-partisan-subsequent Senate are the congressional sessions after Richard Nixon's first election in 1968 and then again after the Jimmy Carter's election in 1976. Every other election since Dwight D Eisenhower's first election to the presidency in 1952 was followed by a Senate that was more polarized than the preceding session.

So, the position that you are currently taking (i.e., not voting on the President's nominee) is only contributing to increasing the polarization that you state that you are trying to avoid, and based on history, waiting until next year is not going to achieve what you have stated is your necessary condition for moving forward with your constitutional duty.

So, what are you waiting for ?

Here is a representation that shows the percentage change in polarization in the Senate in the session subsequent to a presidential election :

| <decrease --0---   increase in polarity   -------->   |
|---------------|----------------------x-----------------|Eisenhower
|---------------|---------------------x------------------|Eisenhower
|---------------|---------------------------x------------|Kennedy
|---------------|---------x------------------------------|Johnson
|------------x--|----------------------------------------|Nixon
|---------------|------------------------------------x---|Nixon
|----x----------|----------------------------------------|Carter
|---------------|---------x------------------------------|Reagan
|---------------|------------x---------------------------|Reagan
|---------------|------x---------------------------------|GHW Bush
|---------------|--------------x-------------------------|Clinton
|---------------|----------------------x-----------------|Clinton
|---------------|-----x----------------------------------|GW Bush
|---------------|----------------------x-----------------|GW Bush
|---------------|----------x-----------------------------|Obama
|---------------|-------------------x--------------------|Obama
|---------------|-----------------???--------------------| ?????

Please, get to work at the business of efficient government.

Please re-read Article II, Sec 2 of the Constitution, and recall the oath to which you pledged in January of this year, to assess whether your current position is based on any factual data, correct logic, and good judgement ... and then please #doyourjob, or do the honorable thing : resign.

Sincerely,